For buyers and sellers who spent the past year on the sidelines, the burning question remains: “How is the housing market right now?” We’ve put together a comprehensive guide to help you understand the current housing market and what the future may hold.
What to expect in 2024: Predicted real estate trends
From stabilizing home prices and slightly lower mortgage rates to a rebound in inventory and a surge in single-family housing construction, these are the trends we predict could shape the housing market in the months to come.
Home prices will increase ever so slightly
Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors® (NAR), expects home prices to stabilize in 2024, with a projected 0.9% annual increase bringing the median home price to $389,500. Similarly, BrightMLS, a Mid-Atlantic regional multiple listing service, forecasts a 1.5% rise in home prices, reaching a median of $394,200. As per the latest NAR data from December 2023, the median existing-home price ticked up 4.4% from the same period a year earlier, with the typical home selling for $382,600.
Mortgage rates will continue to fall
After mortgage rates skyrocketed to 8.45% on October 17 (the highest level in over 20 years for 30-year mortgage rates), they started a gradual decline. By the end of 2023, rates had settled into the 6.6% range, where they have since remained stable. The Federal Reserve recently announced that it plans to make three rate cuts in 2024, which could bring mortgage rates down to an average of 6.1%–6.6% by the end of the year, according to industry experts. Economists surveyed by Reuters predict these interest rate cuts are likely to begin in June, if not May.
In December 2023, the inventory of unsold existing homes totaled 1 million units, down 11.5% from November but up 4.2% compared to the same period in 2022. Heading into 2024, NAR’s chief economist expects housing inventory to jump 30% “as more sellers begin to list after delaying selling over the past two years.”
Even a marked increase in inventory isn’t enough to offset the nationwide housing shortage, currently estimated at 3.2 million homes. This will tip the market in favor of sellers and keep home prices elevated throughout 2024.
In a recent interview with Realtor Magazine, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, Sam Khater, noted, “Despite persistent inventory challenges, we anticipate a busier spring homebuying season than 2023, with home prices continuing to increase at a steady pace.”
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